Experts to Offer Perspectives on Potential Stagflation and Recession


Economic indicators continue to fluctuate due to supply chain issues, the conflict in Ukraine, the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and uncertainty surrounding record-breaking inflation. In the upcoming Special Briefing on September 15, panelists will offer their unique perspectives and discuss the possibility of stagflation and recession as inflationary pressures continue to weigh heavily on consumers. 

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Panelists Beth Ann Bovino of S&P Global Ratings and Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, appear split on what the current economic turbulence may mean in terms of a future recession, the impact on consumers is certain. In an August research note, Bovino sees “slim” odds that the US will avoid a recession in 2023, noting both economic indicators such as unemployment and the impacts of the most recent Federal Reserve interest rate increases.  In June, Zandi said in a Moody’s Analytics Weekly Market Outlook that “recession is not inevitable today, nor is it the most likely path for the economy.”  

Hughey Newsome, chief financial officer of Wayne County, Michigan and Gabriel Petek, legislative analyst for the state of California will address the impact on, and response from, state and local governments. Wayne County, the largest in Michigan and home to Detroit, with a workforce exceeding 4,000 across its $1.68 billion annual budget, is preparing for the future amid increasing costs. With Governor Gavin Newsome’s signature on June 30, California passed a fiscal 2023 budget that uses many one-time investments and directs excess funds to reserves and debt repayment, bringing the state’s rainy day fund to approximately 15.9 percent of general fund expenditures. Newsome and Petek will speak to how their offices are planning and forecasting for the future as the next budget cycle begins. 

Panelist Alison Premo Black, chief economist for the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, will address how inflationary pressure is impacting infrastructure projects. With record-breaking revenues and federal aid, the transportation sector is flush with cash while facing increased fuel and raw materials prices. Black will provide insight into how industry and state and local governments can shepherd projects from planning to completion, while bolstering the nation’s economy.

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